When international institutions for strategic arms control showed signs of recesscion, the administration of US under the second term of President Donald Trump has made some adjustments in strategic weapon policy to assert its position and strengthen deterrence capability against rivals. Such moves have caused international concern about a new arms race, significantly impacting the regional and global security.
Development and negotiations on strategic weapons
It has been recorded that with its strategic weapons development policy beginning in World War II, the U.S became the first nation to possess and use nuclear weapons – a crucial tool to affirm its superpower status. However, when the Soviet Union successfully tested a nuclear bomb in 1949, the US monopoly ended, ushering in an era of nuclear arms race that has lasted over four decades.
To acquire comparable nuclear weapon carriers, during the 1950s and 1960s periods, the US invested in developing intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), strategic bombers, and nuclear submarines, forming the “nuclear triad”. ICBMs are stored in silos on US territory, capable of rapid and accurate response, becoming an effective deterrent; submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) are carried by submarines hidden beneath the ocean, with high survivability, ensuring retaliation even in the event of a preemptive strike; while strategic bombers are deployed both on US territory and at its bases abroad, enabling them with a worldwide range.
Despite this strategic triad, the United States, faced with the Soviet Union's advancements in strategic weapons development, formulated the “nuclear deterrence” doctrine, “preventing war through the fear of annihilation”. By mid-1960s, both the US and the Soviet Union have acquired sufficient nuclear capabilities to destroy each other completely. This forced Washington and Moscow to negotiate and sign agreements on reducing nuclear weapons and delivery systems, aiming to de-escalate the costly arms race and minimise the risks of miscalculations. Furthermore, the strategic weapons agreements reached by the two superpowers would help prevent other nations from developing these weapons of mass destruction. Some notable bilateral agreements in this area include: SALT I (Strategic Arms Limitation Talks, Phase 1) and SALT II (Strategic Arms Limitation Talks, Phase 2) in the 1970s; ABM (Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty) of 1972; the INF (Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty) of 1987; and START I (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) of 1991. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia (which inherited most of the Soviet legacy) and the United States continued to maintain the commitments from the previous periods regarding the control of nuclear weapons and delivery systems. The two countries continued negotiations and signed the New START Treaty (New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) in 2010.
Recently, the ups and downs in US-Russia relations have weakened the mechanisms for strategic arms control. Consequently, several countries, such as India, Pakistan, and North Korea, have conducted nuclear weapons tests. China has expanded its nuclear warhead stockpiles, missile silos, and improved its space-based early warning capabilities. Even, the US unilaterally withdrew from the ABM Treaty (Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty) in 2002 to deploy its national missile defence system. Since 2021, Russia has abandoned the New START framework, accelerating its development of new generation ICBMs and hypersonic vehicles.
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| The LGM-35A Sentinel Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (Photo: Defence News) |
Current U.S Strategic Weapon Policy
After returning to power, U.S President Donald Trump requested the Department of Defence to strengthen measures for strategic “proactive deterrence”, enhance territorial defence capabilities, and consolidate military might globally. Accordingly, President Donald Trump's administration announced 10 major reforms to the U.S Department of Defence, including: restoring the name Department of War; announcing a plan to build the Golden Dome missile defence system; a plan to expand the fleet, etc., to affirm the reestablishment of the US global nuclear naval force.
To realise these goals, President Donald Trump's administration has implemented specific steps: (1). Persuading the Congress to pass the “One, Big and Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA), allocating $2.4 billion to the Department of Defence and the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) to restart the sea-launched nuclear cruise missile project (March 2025); (2). Maintain and accelerate all projects for nuclear triad modernisation, with high priority given to the LGM-35A Sentinel ICBM (Intercontinental Ballistic Missile) in fiscal year 2026, ensuring the first test launch of this missile before 2029; supplement budget and accelerate the construction of Columbia-class submarines (the first one has undergone sea trials since July 2025); provide additional budget for the development and production of LRSO cruise missiles and W87-1, W93 warheads; conduct Minuteman III ICBM tests (August 2025); (3). Enhance the demonstration of deterrence capabilities in many regions of the world; continue to promote extended deterrence mechanisms and cooperation with allies; get ready to deeply intervene, even by military measures, in situations when the U.S interests are involved; (4). President Donald Trump affirmed his readiness to negotiate disarmament with Russia, but demanded the participation of China which is cited for rapid increase in nuclear weapons and delivery systems. Notably, on 30 October 2025, President Donald Trump directed the Department of War to restart US nuclear test the same as Russia and China.
Moreover, on land, the U.S is focusing its efforts on deploying the LGM-35A Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) programme to replace the Minuteman III series after over half a century of service. Viewed as an open weapons system, the Sentinel allow for software upgrades and flexible warhead replacements in the future. At sea, Washington focuses on developing the Columbia-class nuclear submarines to gradually replace the Ohio-class (aiming to deliver the first USS District of Columbia in early 2030s). The Columbia-class nuclear submarines are designed with a life-long nuclear reactor technology (approximately 42 years), eliminating the need for mid-life refueling and maximising operational time. Their electric-powered propulsions are extremely quiet, making them undetectable by sophisticated anti-submarine warfare systems, thereby enhancing their stealth capabilities underwater and protecting them from preemptive attacks. In the air, the U.S prioritises the development of the B-21 Raider strategic bomber, designed to penetrate dense anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) systems. Additionally, the U.S continues to maintain 66 B-52H Stratofortress strategic bombers capable of launching AGM-86B cruise missiles and B-2A Spirit stealth bombers, which can drop B61/B83 gravity bombs or guided glide bombs.
The administration of President D. Trump also expands the scope of its strategic weapon policy to include missile defence, most notably the Golden Dome missile defence system. This system's innovation lies in its multi-layered defence capabilities (land-based, sea-based, and satellite-based), its ability to launch a "preemptive strike," and its capacity to detect and destroy enemy missiles as soon as they are launched. What’s more, the U.S will also increase the number of ground-based interceptor missiles (NGI - Next Generation Interceptors), intensify research into defence solutions against hypersonic missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles, including the use of high-intensity laser weapon systems. Besides, the Space Force will have more power in managing early warning and space surveillance satellite systems to protect the United States from potential attacks.
Impacts on the region and the world
According to military experts, adjustments in the strategic weapon policy of the Trump administration could herald major changes in military power, making the U.S the first nation to achieve a “two-pronged, two-tiered” deterrence (maintaining both offensive and defensive capabilities with a multi-tiered shield). However, this goal will not be easily achieved due to technical and financial reasons.
In response to the US strategic weapon development, on 21 February 2023, Russia announced the suspension of the renewal of the New START treaty, and accelerated the production of the Poseidon nuclear torpedo which was successfully tested it in October 2025. In addition, it also test-fired the new Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile, which is considered invincible and capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. In particular, Russian President Putin warned that if the U.S resumes nuclear tests, Russia will take commensurate retaliatory measures.
Recently, China has also taken steps to expand its nuclear arsenal, such as: building new launch facilities for the DF-31A/DF-41 missile system (2021-2024); putting into service the JL-2 ballistic missile launched from Type-094 submarines and continuing testing of the new JL-3 version since 2018; and building space-based early warning capabilities to support a “launch on alert” posture. According to reliable sources, China's nuclear stockpile has now exceeded 500 warheads and continues to grow over 1,000 before 2030.
Experts also hold that the increased investments in strategic weapons development by major powers could trigger a new arms race, especially in nuclear weapons, putting the world at risk of strategic instability. However, they also hope this will be an opportunity for nuclear powers to restart negotiations on reducing nuclear weapons and delivery systems, and replace the New START Treaty which expires in February 2026.
International public opinion hopes that, in the context of major challenges, maintaining a peaceful and stable environment is more urgent than ever. The United States and other major powers should find a balanced solution soon which can both ensure their national security and prevent the world from a new arms race.
Dr. NGUYEN HONG QUANG, Americas Department, Ministry of Foreign Affairs
